Very well written - I kept wanting to stop reading, but it was so fascinating that I kept consuming - like a bottomless bucket of salty, buttery popcorn. Thank you!
I know that in your speculations you aren't proclaiming certainty of the future, so I don't critique how you unraveled the thread of "millennial homeownership." I only comment to add that there are other rabbit holes that the data may be taking us toward. The same is true for the "in person vs WFH" argument. For example, the decline in household formation among millennials may have been a result of their coming of age during the great recession - delaying their opportunities to mature, "settle," or "own" various things. This is exacerbated by many of their desires to own being thwarted by affordability (which you addressed as the key concern) - mostly in the large metros. Many savvy millennials aren't necessarily foregoing owning (see some of the recent studies about millennial US buyers as a percentage of the whole and you'll see that ownership is still on their minds) - they are just solving the desires for flexibility and affordability with other new categories (enter the aforementioned home rental market - of which I have been profiting nicely for 9 years). Imagine combining the home rental market with the Van market and you have flexibility, ownership, and affordability (even likely positive cashflow). All this to say that many of the data points don't always deliver the information of what people want - and that understanding - like the Brian Chesky/Sequoia anecdote is more nuanced.
I guess this is inherently the non-obvious creative fun of category design.
And regardless of the various rabbit holes of speculation, these exercises lead to the true objective: new market opportunities in where we live, how we interact, and who we pay for these amenities and services. AND THAT, is phenomenally exciting.
Great link from the book ;) now back to the book I go haha PS. This was killer information. I really liked that you made me think about my idea/s in a different way
Campbell's Soup & How To Design A Category Breakthrough In The Roaring 2020s
Very well written - I kept wanting to stop reading, but it was so fascinating that I kept consuming - like a bottomless bucket of salty, buttery popcorn. Thank you!
I know that in your speculations you aren't proclaiming certainty of the future, so I don't critique how you unraveled the thread of "millennial homeownership." I only comment to add that there are other rabbit holes that the data may be taking us toward. The same is true for the "in person vs WFH" argument. For example, the decline in household formation among millennials may have been a result of their coming of age during the great recession - delaying their opportunities to mature, "settle," or "own" various things. This is exacerbated by many of their desires to own being thwarted by affordability (which you addressed as the key concern) - mostly in the large metros. Many savvy millennials aren't necessarily foregoing owning (see some of the recent studies about millennial US buyers as a percentage of the whole and you'll see that ownership is still on their minds) - they are just solving the desires for flexibility and affordability with other new categories (enter the aforementioned home rental market - of which I have been profiting nicely for 9 years). Imagine combining the home rental market with the Van market and you have flexibility, ownership, and affordability (even likely positive cashflow). All this to say that many of the data points don't always deliver the information of what people want - and that understanding - like the Brian Chesky/Sequoia anecdote is more nuanced.
I guess this is inherently the non-obvious creative fun of category design.
And regardless of the various rabbit holes of speculation, these exercises lead to the true objective: new market opportunities in where we live, how we interact, and who we pay for these amenities and services. AND THAT, is phenomenally exciting.
Great link from the book ;) now back to the book I go haha PS. This was killer information. I really liked that you made me think about my idea/s in a different way
Pirates ahoy
Great article! I'll be testing my new category idea with the VC Game in mind!